Senior Director, Commercial Insights & BD Forecasting

At Lilly, we unite caring with discovery to make life better for people around the world. We are a global healthcare leader headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana. Our employees around the world work to discover and bring life-changing medicines to those who need them, improve the understanding and management of disease, and give back to our communities through philanthropy and volunteerism. We give our best effort to our work, and we put people first. We’re looking for people who are determined to make life better for people around the world. Senior Director, Business Development Forecasting & Analytics Corporate Business Development | Reports to VP, Corporate Development and BD Strategy The Role: This is not a forecast-maintenance role. We're looking for someone who builds conviction — who can walk into an unfamiliar therapeutic area, do the primary work, and produce a commercially defensible point of view where little internal precedent exists. You'll be the person in the room who has done the work and can stand behind it. Reporting to the VP of Corporate Development and BD Strategy, you'll lead end-to-end commercial assessment for licensing, acquisition, and partnership opportunities across markets new or adjacent to Lilly's current portfolio — and build the forecasting infrastructure that raises the quality of BD analytics across the organization. White Space Assessment & Market Intelligence Lead commercial assessments from early landscape scoping through full deal-stage forecasting, with a clear and defensible POV at each stage Rapidly develop substantive expertise in unfamiliar therapeutic areas — synthesizing epidemiology, treatment algorithms, competitive dynamics, payer landscapes, and emerging clinical data Proactively size white space opportunities before formal deal processes begin; track signals across pipelines, regulatory trends, and payer policy to anticipate where markets are heading Market Research Leadership Design and lead primary research programs (qualitative and quantitative) with physicians, payers, patients, and channel partners — especially where secondary data is thin Commission and critically evaluate third-party research; translate external deliverables into actionable commercial insight Build Lilly's institutional knowledge base in new markets through documented findings, assumptions, and forecast rationale that persist beyond individual deals Forecasting Model Development Build flexible, reusable forecasting models with modular architecture, shared assumptions, and clear documentation Deploy approaches suited to data-scarce environments: analogue models, epidemiology-driven patient flow frameworks, expert elicitation, and scenario trees Model the full commercial picture — uptake trajectories, competitive erosion, pricing and access assumptions, channel dynamics, lifecycle scenarios, and risk-adjusted probability of success Go-to-Market & Channel Strategy Evaluate innovative commercial approaches — outcomes-based contracting, risk-sharing structures, novel launch sequencing — and assess their viability in new market entries Analyze channel architecture trade-offs (specialty pharmacy, buy-and-bill, direct-to-patient, GPO/IDN) and their impact on revenue, access, and deal valuation BD Partnership & Executive Influence Serve as the commercial analytics partner to BD leadership from initial screening through due diligence, term sheet development, and integration planning Present forecasts to senior executives with the confidence to defend assumptions, acknowledge uncertainty honestly, and make clear recommendations — not just ranges Engage directly with external counterparties and advisors during diligence, representing Lilly's commercial perspective with authority Minimum Qualifications: Bachelor's or advanced degree in a scientific field 10+ years in pharmaceutical or biotech commercial strategy, BD analytics, market research, or strategic forecasting Preferred Qualifications: Master’s degree Meaningful exposure beyond a single therapeutic area Demonstrated track record building commercial conviction in new or ambiguous markets — not just maintaining existing forecasts Experience leading primary market research: study design, vendor management, and synthesis into commercial recommendations Strong financial modeling skills: bottoms-up and epidemiology-based revenue forecasting, DCF/rNPV analysis, sensitivity and scenario modeling Deep understanding of how pharmaceutical markets work: treatment paradigm dynamics, prescriber behavior, payer decision-making, launch benchmarks, competitive response Familiarity with innovative go-to-market models (value-based agreements, outcomes-based contracting, digital-first launch) and pharmaceutical channel architecture Confident communicator who can present a supported commercial view to senior leadership and stand behind it Strategy consulting or life sciences investment banking background; experience with RWE/HEOR; knowledge of FDA/EMA regulatory pathways; prior work building forecasting infrastructure across a BD organization Lilly is dedicated to helping individuals with disabilities to actively engage in the workforce, ensuring equal opportunities when vying for positions. If you require accommodation to submit a resume for a position at Lilly, please complete the accommodation request form (https://careers.lilly.com/us/en/workplace-accommodation) for further assistance. Please note this is for individuals to request an accommodation as part of the application process and any other correspondence will not receive a response. Lilly is proud to be an EEO Employer and does not discriminate on the basis of age, race, color, religion, gender identity, sex, gender expression, sexual orientation, genetic information, ancestry, national origin, protected veteran status, disability, or any other legally protected status. Our employee resource groups (ERGs) offer strong support networks for their members and are open to all employees. Our current groups include: Africa, Middle East, Central Asia Network, Black Employees at Lilly, Chinese Culture Network, Japanese International Leadership Network (JILN), Lilly India Network, Organization of Latinx at Lilly (OLA), PRIDE (LGBTQ+ Allies), Veterans Leadership Network (VLN), Women’s Initiative for Leading at Lilly (WILL), enAble (for people with disabilities). Learn more about all of our groups. Actual compensation will depend on a candidate’s education, experience, skills, and geographic location. The anticipated wage for this position is $169,500 - $275,000 Full-time equivalent employees also will be eligible for a company bonus (depending, in part, on company and individual performance). In addition, Lilly offers a comprehensive benefit program to eligible employees, including eligibility to participate in a company-sponsored 401(k); pension; vacation benefits; eligibility for medical, dental, vision and prescription drug benefits; flexible benefits (e.g., healthcare and/or dependent day care flexible spending accounts); life insurance and death benefits; certain time off and leave of absence benefits; and well-being benefits (e.g., employee assistance program, fitness benefits, and employee clubs and activities).Lilly reserves the right to amend, modify, or terminate its compensation and benefit programs in its sole discretion and Lilly’s compensation practices and guidelines will apply regarding the details of any promotion or transfer of Lilly employees. #WeAreLilly Apply To This Job